President's Quarterly: The Food vs. Fuel Issue
Spring 2008 Volume 1, Issue 2
President's Letter
Greetings!

As you know, a food crisis is upon us and the food vs. fuel debate will only continue to make headlines unless we take actions towards implementing self-sufficiency in both emerging economies and developed countries offering aid.
Across the globe, food availability is freefalling while panic escalates. This fear is causing food prices to skyrocket at an alarming rate on most everything we consume.
In 2007, food prices rose 40%, an increase four times larger than those in the previous year. Nearly every agricultural commodity has risen in price - internationally wheat prices have tripled; maize prices have doubled; the price of rice rose 118% over the last calendar year; dairy, poultry, meat, palm oil and cassava have all increased in price.
In emerging economies, where income levels are low, rising food prices equate to an overreliance on non-nutritious sbstitutes and an increased concern in world health. Many countries - among them China, India, Vietnam, Egypt, Mexico and Ukraine - are severely restricting or heavily taxing exports in an effort to secure their country's food supply. As a result, the available food supply will soon decrease for importing countries, forcing countries such as the United States to fill the void.
Unfortunately, there is more than one cause for this distortion of international trade.
With the cost of oil at $120 a barrel, there are increasing investments in agriculture, and farmers are shifting their crops to bio-fuel feed stocks and away from soybeans, wheat and other commodities. This is not a result of laissez-faire markets, but of government subsidies and political pressures to develop renewable alternatives.
There has also been a shift in consumption patterns in recent years with an increased demand on red meat and processed foods. This shift is compounded with the always-escalating world population. Poorer nations are falling deeper into malnutrition, and the United Nations Millenium Goal of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015 is becoming a distant dream.
In fact, the reverse is being realized. There is a rise in world hunger, which will continue to increase as the prospect of climate change negatively alters crop yields and speculation drives up the market price of food due to uncertainty surrounding selective commodoties.
This, above all, makes our venture outside of the U.S. more impactful. Though these problems are daunting and the stakes are set at life or death, solutions do exist, but only if we collaborate. By holding the 2009 World Congress in Africa, we are allowing developing economies to join the rest of the world in opportunities to end world hunger and create a healthier way of life.
Sincerely,
Ray Cesca
President World Agricultural Forum
Food Perspective: What Impact Does the Expansion of Corn for Biofuel have on the Price and Availability of Food?

It was never forecasted until the early 1990s that fuel production would compete with food production for key natural resources and cultivable land water, which have conventionally been used for food production since mankind originated. It was also not expected that grain would be used for fuel production at the cost of hunger.
Now the key issue being debated globally is that "food is first or fuel is first." As the conversion of large quantities of staple grains has rapidly increased in recent years, especially in the U.S. and Latin American countries, serious concern surfaced throughout the world for future threats against global food security. This was of particular importance for the poorest of the poor in food-deficient nations-largely in Africa and Asia. In 2006, about 20% of the US corn production was used for biofuels, and it is targeted to reach 27% in 2007. Further, it is expected to increase in the use of corn for biofuel production if the same 'highly subsidized policy' is continued in the US.
As a result of the paid conversion of corn from food to fuel, the availability of cereal for food in the world has declined by 15% since 2005. Today, the world's cereal demand has outstripped the cereal supplies by nearly 15% mainly due to use of corn for biofuels (ethanol production). Consequently, cereal prices have risen beyond affordable prices for most. Such trends may not affect the food surplus nations, such the U.S. in the short run, but the food-deficient countries and food-aid-dependent countries in Africa and Asia will suffer from starvation due to the lack of available grains and their increased prices.
Some scientific studies indicate that large-scale use of corn for ethanol production would lead to serious environmental consequences, making productive resources scarce in the long run. This would further cause a serious threat for global food security. The countries that are heavily dependent upon food imports and food-aids would be starved if corn is used for biofuels.
There are two options to overcome the global food crisis arising from the us of corn for biofuels. First, the multilateral agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Food Program, the World Bank, etc., need to formulate a clear global biofuel policy banning use of food for fuel production. Secondly, all food-dependent countries need a long term self-sufficient food policy in place as 'surplus food bowls such as the US are becoming empty due to use rapid use of corn for biofuels.'
N. Raghuveera Reddy
The Honorable Minister for Agriculture, Government of Andhra Pradesh, Hyderabad, India
Fuel Perspective: Imagining a World without Ethanol

When the price of oil hit, and then passed beyond $100 a barrel, headlines were made. This week, an even more newsworthy headline has surfaced. All it could take is one major disruption and oil can hit $200 a barrel, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs.
And yet, despite the far-reaching impact oil has on our economy, and despite the fact that we are still depending on nations that would be described as somewhat less than respectful of basic human rights, there are people who refuse to recognize corn ethanol for what it is -a way to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Right now.
We accept the usual caveats - corn ethanol is not the solution, but part of the solution. We accept that corn ethanol is not the only biofuel out there. We see great promise in cellulosic ethanol, but we recognize it is just that: promise. Something we need to work on for the future. And a promise we cannot achieve without the contributions of corn ethanol.
For now, corn ethanol is an efficient fuel source that is available, affordable and American. It has decades of research behind it and is growing even more efficient.
But what if we were to stop using it? Well, a few recent reports detail the economic benefits of ethanol.
Recently, the American Farm Bureau Federation's senior economist discussed two financial benefits of ethanol. First off, it reduces the price of a gallon of gas by 5 to 10 cents. Doesn't sound like all that much, does it? Nationally, that's a savings of between $7 billion and $14 billion. Further, with higher crop prices, federal support for farmers is reduced by $8 billion to $12 billion each year.
Taken together, the savings are between $15 billion and $25 billion. Reduce that by tax credits for ethanol, and you still have a net positive impact of $11 billion to $21 billion.
Secondly, in its recent report on the economic impact of the ethanol industry, the Renewable Fuels Association found that in 2007 ethanol supported more than 230,000 U.S. jobs put more than $12 billion into the pockets of American consumers, and generated more than $8 billion in tax revenue.
This is all great news for the American public and worthy of the headlines. But what's the big headline grabber? It was a recent syndicated column by Walter Williams resembling a loose collection of canards and urban legends strung together with a thin and weak thread. For a conservative libertarian, he found it too easy to buy into some the mistruths spread by alarmist fearmongers like Lester Brown.
Sure, these folks want to do away with ethanol. But where would that leave us? At present, there is no viable alternative that looks as good. A country without ethanol would be a country with more foreign oil, more expensive gasoline, and more unemployment.
Sure, we want to be the "Land of Plenty," but not the land of plenty problems!
Rick Tolman
Chief Executive Officer National Corn Growers Association
In my opinion... Food vs. Fuel - Osler Desouzart

The issues are very simple:
a) America has determined a policy of diminishing its dependency on imported foreign oil. Right or wrong, it is there and being implemented.
b) Farmers have lived most of their lives planting corn and selling it at USD 2 per bushell which was unsustainable.
c) The United States has the resources to subsidize the ethanol program that would - in their view - solve problems a) and b) above, and as a result, followed through with it.
d) Europe has the resources for subsidies. They also have the political need to continue to subsidize agriculture and do so with a "green" approach and strategy to promote biodiesel and ethanol out of wheat, among others.
e) Both the United States and the European Economic Committee will not change these policies. The United States is reaching more than 8 billion gallons and should continue until it reaches 13 to 14 billion gallons which would permit them to replace 10% of their gas consumption.
f) High prices of grains are stimulating production in countries like Brazil, without burning down the Amazon Forest, as ill-informed or ill-intended people like to say - since they make the confusion between Amazon Forest (biome) and Amazon Region (political more than geographical). This progression will continue and Brazil still has 90 mm hectar to continue to plant, again without burning down the Amazon Forest.
g) The high prices of food are also conpounded with climatic conditions that have affected production of wheat and other crops.
h) Rice, which is not used for biofuels, is a staple for Africa, Asia and parts of Latin America. The cost of rice has increased by more than 100% and this is negatively affecting vast parts of the world population.
i) As stocks in the financial market have gone down, financial funds are being investing in commodities for speculative purposes, which adds to the escalating prices.
j) In my opinion, oil will reach USD 200 per barrel and from there move up to USD 300 per barrel, promoting investigation and research on additional sources of energy supply (biomass, algues, cellulose, etc). Besides, high prices of gas should promote needed consuming habit changes in the citizens of many emerging economies - (why do you need a 11 miles per gallon car? or a 250 HP engine if speed limit is 60 miles?).
k) Science will help with new seeds for more efficient crops. In Brazil, several alternative vegetable sources are being investigated to produce ethanol and biodiesel (other countries may be doing the same) that do not compete with arable land used for food production. In our case, we incorporate land of the semi-arid Northeast Region where you can not plant grain due to irregular rains, lack of water and low soil fertility. Pinhao-mansao, castor beans, several palmtree varieties, and many more are yielding encouraging results.
l) Not until 2012-2014 will the results of grain production expansion, new species and new sources be felt, after we will have seen higher food prices.
m) The increasing income of the population in some areas of Asia, Latin America and Africa is also increasing food demand and promoting changes in food habits. That puts additional pressure on food prices.
If we let science and entrepreneurs do their role, food production will continue to expand, as well as that of renewable sources of energy. Until then, I am afraid that the food price situation will not have a better perspective. Prices will remain high and even if they climax and stop breaking records, they will not revert to prior levels. I shall no longer see in my remaining lifetime corn at USD 90 pmt. But, keep in mind that low grain prices are also bad for agriculture since it renders the activity unsustainable. How much have we transferred from the rural areas to urban areas in the last 30 years?
Osler Desouzart
ODConsulting
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In the News: WAF on Africa
Uganda: Country to Host World Agriculture Forum
Apr 15, 2008
World Agricultural Forum in Africa
Apr 17, 2008
Christian Science Monitor
How to ease the squeeze on food access
Apr 17, 2008
WAF Updates
For the first time in history, the World Agricultural Forum's (WAF) 2009 World Congress will take place outside of the United States and will be hosted by the Republic of Uganda. Due to overwhelming interest for what was supposed to be a regional meeting the event evolved into the WAF's 2009 World Congress, "Africa Meets the World: Creating Prosperity By Investing in Agriculture." The 2009 World Congress, scheduled for February 24-26, 2009 in Kampala, Uganda will conclude with the introduction of the WAF Task Force on Strategic Partnerships for Higher Education in Africa - Entrepreneurship and Community Development on February 27, 2009.
"The world's attention to Africa continues to grow, particularly with humanitarian concerns," said the Right Honorable James Bolger, ONZ, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and Ambassador to the United States, and current chairman of the World Agricultural Forum Advisory Board. "However, with the hundreds of institutions, organizations and foundations offering aid, several Africans have told us that they can barely keep up with all those who approach them. Looking beyond Africa's agricultural potential, the need for collaboration among these various groups will propel initiatives for higher education, encouraging entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs will create small businesses, providing more employment opportunities and eventually cultivating an environment for economic growth."
The WAF Task Force on Strategic Partnerships for Higher Education in Africa is a joint effort with the 2007 Global Consortium of Higher Education and Research for Agriculture (GCHERA), the U.S. National Association of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges (NASULGC) and Sustainability, Education and the Management of Change in the Tropics (SEMSIT), Additionally, individual academic institutions from Europe, the United States and Asia will be included in this initiative.
"The growth of the World Agricultural Forum's Congress in Africa is tremendous and great outcomes are anticipated," said the Honorable Hilary Onek, Minister of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries for the Republic of Uganda. "The WAF Task Force on Strategic Partnerships for Higher Education in Africa is beneficial component of the 2009 World Congress as it provides an avenue to implement the solutions discussed for making Africa a target for investments for agriculture.
Prior to the introduction of the WAF Task Force on Strategic Partnerships for Higher Education in Africa, the 2009 World Congress will convene key players in global agribusiness. The Congress will foster open discussions and bring attention to increasing Africa's ability to attract investments and secure economic sustainability through the continent's raw agricultural resources. Topics, such as the worldwide debate on food vs. fuel will be addressed, as will the production of bio-energy at the village level for use by the village community.
Similarly to previous World Congresses, the 2009 World Congress will bring together an influential group of speakers to include heads of state, policy leaders, economists, corporate CEO's and NGO experts from around the world to discuss the topics and necessary actions that will make a difference in African agriculture today.
About the World Agricultural Forum
The World Agricultural Forum (WAF) is at the forefront of the evolving agricultural industry and it serves as a catalyst for innovation and positive changes in agribusiness. On a global stage, the WAF produces one of the largest biennial gatherings of leaders concerned about the world's growing population and the respective shortages of food, fuel and fiber in both developed and developing nations.
The WAF also conducts regional Congresses that, through the use of reliable and timely information, address emerging trends and key industry issues such as sustainable agriculture, fair trade policies and biotechnology. Its focus is to identify solutions to current problems facing poorer nations, particularly in overcoming hunger and poverty.